Netanyahu Is Totally Dependent on Trump

The historian and former top Israeli diplomat Itamar Rabinovich discusses the strategic upheaval in the Middle East, the missed chance to end the Gaza war, Donald Trump’s fickleness, and Israel’s loss of standing.

Die Presse, May 11, 2025

Israel’s government recently announced plans to intensify its military operation in Gaza and occupy further parts of the coastal strip. What do you think of this plan?

Itamar Rabinovich: It’s not a good idea. The Israeli government should have ended the Gaza war long ago. Former U.S. President Joe Biden presented a solid plan: he wanted to replace the terrorist group Hamas in Gaza with the Palestinian Authority and initiate Israeli-Palestinian peace talks to enable Saudi Arabia’s recognition of Israel and establish a pro-Western, anti-Iranian coalition in the Middle East. But Benjamin Netanyahu’s government failed to go along with it.

Why?

The government includes far-right forces that reject both the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza and a two-state solution. Without removing Hamas, the Gaza war can’t end. But Hamas can only be removed if someone else takes over governance in Gaza. The only ones who might be willing to do that—and even fight for it—are the leaders of the Palestinian Authority, who were forcibly expelled from Gaza by Hamas in 2007.

What exactly does Netanyahu want? Does he really intend to fully occupy Gaza and displace its Palestinian population?

I don’t think Netanyahu will go that far. He wants to use increased military pressure to force Hamas into accepting a ceasefire and releasing the remaining hostages. Israel has two war goals in Gaza: eliminating Hamas as a political and military force, and bringing back the hostages. However, these two goals contradict each other. The more pressure on Hamas, the more likely hostages will be killed. In my opinion, Netanyahu’s policy is leading nowhere.

That’s been thoroughly documented over the past 19 months.

The war has had some positive effects—but not in Gaza. Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah in Lebanon and on Iran. Iran attacked Israel twice with rockets, and in response, Israel disabled Iranian air defense systems. In Syria, the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah led to the fall of the Assad dynasty. We can’t yet assess the new Syrian government. But Iran wanted to build a land bridge to the Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon to encircle Israel. Syria was a crucial link in that chain—and Iran has now lost it.

Have these strategic gains gone to the Israeli government’s head?

There’s clear hubris. Netanyahu believes military force alone achieves everything. But that doesn’t work. At some point, military gains must be converted into political and diplomatic capital. Netanyahu’s government is incapable of that due to its extreme right-wing composition. Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a convicted criminal, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich are abhorrent to many Israelis. The ruling coalition would lose in an election.

That’s why the coalition sticks together.

One must give Netanyahu credit: he’s a superb politician. He knows how to hold a government together.

But is that good for Israel?

Definitely not. It’s not good for any country when one man stays in power for so long. Eight to ten years should be enough. Moreover, this government bears responsibility for the massive debacle of October 7. It should face elections to determine whether it still has legitimacy or should yield to the opposition.

There are still a year and a half until the next election. Why are you optimistic the opposition will win?

I follow the polls with religious fervor. But I’m critical not just of the government, but also of the opposition. It’s fragmented and lacks a leader. My hope that the protest movement against Netanyahu’s quasi-coup judicial reform would bring new blood into the opposition has not materialized.

What would Donald Trump’s return to the White House mean for Israel and Netanyahu?

Good question. This week, Trump surprised Israel strategically and left Netanyahu hanging by announcing the end of the U.S. military operation against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. And when Netanyahu came to Washington, he didn’t get a tariff reduction—instead he learned that the U.S. is beginning negotiations with Iran. From an Israeli perspective, Trump is a double-edged sword. He did a few good things for Israel, like the Abraham Accords. He also played a role in achieving the most recent hostage release. But at the same time, Trump is unpredictable.

You can’t rely on him.

Netanyahu has become totally dependent on Trump—he can’t say no to him anymore. The game he played with Biden and Obama no longer exists. He can’t simply bypass and undermine the U.S. President in Congress. Trump controls Congress, the government, and partly even the Supreme Court. What can Netanyahu do? He has no tools left.

What will come out of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran?

No one knows. I assume there will be an agreement. Then Trump will claim it’s far better than previous ones—even if that’s not true. An agreement shouldn’t just address nuclear issues, but also ballistic missiles and Iran’s role as a regional troublemaker.

What is Trump’s strategy for the Middle East?

I don’t know if he has a grand strategy in mind. Trump seems to place little value on structured planning from staff and the National Security Council. His idea of turning Gaza into a Riviera and taking it under American ownership was spontaneous and unprepared.

Surely there was a plan behind the Abraham Accords.

Trump has ideas that come and go. When he sent special envoy Steve Witkoff to Israel to negotiate a ceasefire, it seemed like he would stay engaged. But then he lost interest. Now that he’s visiting Saudi Arabia next week, he’s engaged again. If the Saudis tell him they’ll normalize relations with Israel if certain conditions in Gaza are met, Trump might pressure Netanyahu. Or he might turn away. I don’t underestimate Trump. He knows his stuff, remembers all the names and facts. He’s not Ronald Reagan. But he’s erratic and works in an unorganized way.

Will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities this summer if the U.S. and Iran don’t reach an agreement?

I’m not a fan of attacking Iranian nuclear sites. It wouldn’t end the nuclear program. You can destroy facilities, but not expertise. The Iranians would be even more motivated to build a bomb to prevent future attacks. I prefer an agreement over a military strike. Ideally, there would be regime change in Tehran. The problem isn’t the nuclear weapons—it’s who holds them. A nuclear bomb in the hands of the Iranian regime would be dangerous and would likely lead other Middle Eastern countries to go nuclear. The Saudis probably already have a bomb on a shelf in Pakistan. Turkey and Egypt might be tempted to become nuclear powers too.

Israel is more internationally isolated than ever. Does this development worry you?

I’m very worried. A small Jewish state in the middle of an Arab-Muslim region is dependent on global support. After all, Israel was created by the UN as a partitioned state in Palestine. Israel once stood for progress in many areas. It has recently lost global standing.

How can this development be reversed?

Through a change in government and a different policy. I support the two-state solution. We must separate from the Palestinians and stop being occupiers. That might not be relevant for tomorrow morning—the Palestinian Authority is inefficient, corrupt, and led by old men who should step down. But I want an end to the Gaza war and at least a perspective for a Palestinian state. That would also be good for Israel.

Do you see any signs that a new generation still believes in the two-state solution?

There’s a rightward shift. That’s normal in wartime. It can be reversed. But changing the discourse requires leadership. I had the privilege of working with Israeli Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres. So I know what real leaders can achieve.